Paris (People’s Daily) - The OECD released on Tuesday its latest Economic Outlook, containing analysis and projections for its 35 member countries and other major economies.
In the general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, OECD concluded that the global economy is now growing at its fastest pace since 2010, with the upturn becoming increasingly synchronized across countries. This long awaited lift to global growth, supported by policy stimulus, is being accompanied by solid employment gains, a moderate upturn in investments and a pick-up in trade. Global GDP growth is projected to be just over 3.5% this year, the fastest in seven years, with improved outcomes in both advanced economies and the EMEs (emerging market economies). The growth will be strengthening further to 3.75% in 2018 before easing slightly in 2019.
On a per capita basis, growth is set to improve but fall short of pre-crisis norms in the majority of OECD and non-OECD economies. Inflation is currently subdued in the major economies and is set to remain moderate, although edging up gradually as resource pressures build.
OECD said global trade growth has rebounded since the first half of 2016 and become increasingly broad-based across economies thanks to several key factors including the recovery in Europe, the strong pick-up in the electronics trade in Asia, and a shift in the composition of demand towards investment, which is more import intensive.
As to China, OECD saw a stronger growth in 2017, driven by services and some strategic industries. A softer growth is projected in 2018-19 as exports decelerate, but will remain strong. Industrial production growth has been picking up and profits have improved on the back of higher producer prices. The share of the processing trade is declining but demand for services, in particular on account of tourism and foreign intellectual property, will remain high. Exports will slow somewhat but remain robust, making for a stable current accounts surplus. Infrastructure investments will also remain strong to meet the targets of regional development initiatives. The report has noticed that the Belt and Road initiative will continue to boost trade and investment ties with participating countries.
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account s balances. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries.