BUSINESS Economists predict China to see certain economic rebound in 2023


Economists predict China to see certain economic rebound in 2023


16:34, January 16, 2023

Photo taken on July 16, 2019 shows a workshop producing mobile phone frame parts at Huamao Electronics Group in Chang'an Town of Dongguan, south China's Guangdong Province. (File photo:Xinhua)

(ECNS) -- As of Sunday, 28 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities across China have held the "Two sessions", with the average 2023 GDP growth target in the 28 provinces in 2023 forecast at 6 percent.

Chinese economists believe that in 2023, China's economy would experience significant, comprehensive, and positive improvements, and the national GDP growth rate would exceed 5 percent. With a series of supportive policies, the country's economy will be driven more by domestic demand, and consumption and investment will be promoted.

South China's Hainan has set its 2023 GDP growth target at 9.5 percent, ranking first, followed by Tibet Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, whose growth targets are 8 percent, and 7 percent, respectively.

"Some provinces set higher GDP growth rate targets, showing that the current economy has been under recovery and stabilized. All departments should make advances while maintaining stable performance," said Pang Ming, chief economist of Jones Lang LaSalle in an interview with Securities Daily, China's economy news outlet.

Among the above 28 provinces, north China's Tianjin, Hebei, and other 18 GDP regions have reduced their 2023 GDP growth rate targets.

In this regard, Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, said that although some provinces have lowered their 2023 GDP growth target, it does not mean that they have a pessimistic attitude toward the economic outlook in 2023.

Zhao believes that GDP growth rate targets set by Shanghai and Beijing are relatively close to the national goal. Shanghai's GDP growth rate in 2023 is set to be more than 5.5 percent, which means that the national GDP growth rate in 2023 would possibly be 5.5 percent.

Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities predicted that the national GDP growth rate in 2023 may be around 6 percent, and the growth rate would be significantly increased due to the lower base effect in the second quarter.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, analyzed that the risk of overseas economic recession in 2023 would gradually increase, and the Fed may change from interest rate hikes to cutting them. It is expected that the actual GDP growth rate in China would reach 5 percent or even higher in 2023.

CITIC Securities Chief Economist Ming Ming said that "steady economic growth" is placed in a more prominent position by local governments, which will support national economic recovery. It is expected that China's economy would improve in 2023, and achieve a growth rate exceeding 5 percent.

"It is estimated that China's GDP growth rate will return to 5 percent in 2023," said Yang Delong, chief economist of First Seafront Fund. With the optimization of COVID response measures, China's consumption and production activities will return to normal, and the economic growth rate will rebound, he added.

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