Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, forecasts record coffee production in 2026, driven by favorable weather, expanded cultivated areas, and a positive productivity cycle in coffee plantations, the state-owned National Supply Company (CONAB) said Thursday.
Brazil's coffee production could reach 66.7 million 60-kilogram sacks in the current cycle, up 18 percent from the previous harvest and the highest volume ever on record.
If the output matches the forecast, production will surpass the previous record of 63.08 million sacks set in 2020.
The coffee boom comes amid recovering agricultural productivity and Brazil's strengthening position in the international market, where the country remains the world's leading supplier of coffee.
According to CONAB, the total area set aside for coffee cultivation could grow 3.9 percent to 2.34 million hectares, while average national productivity could increase by 13 percent, to 34.4 sacks per hectare.
Production of Arabica coffee, the variety most exported and with the highest added value, is estimated to yield 45.77 million sacks, a 28 percent increase over last year.
CONAB attributed the increase mainly to the positive biennial production cycle and improved weather conditions in the country's top-producing regions.
For robusta coffee, used primarily in instant coffee and industrial products, output is forecast at 20.9 million sacks, up 0.8 percent from the previous harvest.
The state of Minas Gerais, Brazil's leading coffee-producing state, is expected to account for nearly half of national output, with an estimated harvest of 33.4 million sacks, a 29.8 percent increase compared to last year.
Despite strong projected production growth, Brazil's coffee exports fell 22.5 percent year on year to 11.5 million sacks between January and April 2026, according to official data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services.
The decline reflects low domestic inventories following limited harvests in previous years and sustained international demand.