File photo: Agencies
HOUSTON, Dec. 8 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Houston metro area was forecast to add between 35,000 and 52,000 new jobs in 2021 as the region works to recover from the devastating economic impact of COVID-19, the Greater Houston Partnership said on Tuesday.
According to the forecast, most of the job growth is likely to occur in the second half of the year as Houston begins returning to more normal economic activity thanks to COVID-19 vaccines. The sectors contributing most to job growth in this region are likely to be administrative support services, health care and social assistance, manufacturing and professional services. Energy and retail are the only two industries that are not expected to post job gains in the region.
The organization's Senior Vice President of Research Patrick Jankowski believed several factors will determine where Houston job growth lands within the forecast range. If oil prices reach 50 U.S. dollars per barrel by the spring, the country's real GDP growth exceeds 4.5 percent and new COVID infections fall below 40,000 per day in the first quarter, Houston's job gains will be on the higher end of the range. If those factors do not fall into place and rising cases force more stay-at-home orders, growth will likely be closer to 35,000 jobs, he said.
"The U.S. will see two different economies next year," Jankowski said, pointing out that the first half of 2021 will be a struggle because of a new potential surge in COVID-19 cases following the holidays and a wait-and-see approach among consumers.
"As the pandemic subsides, a wave of pent-up demand will be unleashed. Businesses will restart projects suspended the year before. Consumers, not wanting to forego another vacation, will book flights or load up their SUVs. Energy consumption will grow, oil prices will rise, and drilling activity will pick up," he expected.
Bob Harvey, President and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership, agreed that that once Houston has overcome COVID-19, the region will still need time to regain its economic footing.
"The virus has dealt this region a significant blow, and the reality is it will take many months - if not years - to regain the jobs lost and repair the damage," he said.
As the economic development organization for the Houston region, the Greater Houston Partnership champions growth across 12 counties by bringing together business and leaders. The organization represents 1,100 member organizations and approximately one-fifth of the region's workforce.