A view of solar panels at sunset, Dongying, east China's Shandong Province, March 20, 2024. (Photo: VCG)

China's installed solar power capacity is expected to surpass that of coal power for the first time in 2026, as the country's transition toward green and low-carbon energy accelerates, according to an industry report released on Tuesday.

The forecast was published by the China Electricity Council in its analysis report on the national power supply and demand for the first quarter of 2026.

Driven by rising electricity demand, a greener energy mix, and increased investment in renewables, the power sector had a strong showing in the first quarter of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), it said.

The council noted that the national grid operated reliably, ensuring a secure and well-balanced power supply.

During the first quarter, total electricity consumption reached 2.51 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.2 percent.

By the end of March, the country's total installed power generation capacity stood at 3.96 billion kilowatts. Notably, non-fossil energy capacity reached 2.46 billion kilowatts, surging 21.3 percent year-on-year and accounting for 62.0 percent of the total capacity.

The green transition of the power sector continued to move forward at a solid pace, with newly installed wind and solar power capacity combined reaching 57.16 million kilowatts in the first three months, representing 68.2 percent of all new power generation capacity added nationwide.

Looking ahead, the report predicts that stable macroeconomic growth and the development of new infrastructure will continue to drive steady and rapid electricity demand.

Total power consumption for the full year of 2026 is expected to range between 10.9 and 11 trillion kW — a year-on-year growth rate of 5 to 6 percent — with second-quarter growth estimated at around 5 percent. The maximum power load for the year is projected to reach between 1.57 and 1.63 billion kilowatts, it said.

The council expects China to add more than 400 million kilowatts of new power generation capacity throughout 2026, with new energy contributing over 300 million kilowatts to that total.

Total national installed capacity is forecast to exceed 4 billion kilowatts in the second quarter. By the end of the year, combined wind and solar power capacity will account for half of China's total installed power generation capacity, with solar capacity alone eclipsing coal for the first time in history, it said.