The World Bank projected that China's economic growth will reach 4.4 percent in 2026, which remains unchanged compared with its previous forecast made in December 2025 for the economy, according to the international organization's latest China Economic Update sent to the Global Times on Tuesday.

The bank said that China's economy stayed resilient in early 2026, supported by strong high-tech investment and exports, and that growth could exceed current projections.

According to the report, the impact of the global shock on China's economy was mitigated by large oil reserves, diversified fuel imports, a high share of renewables, and policy measures including temporary retail fuel price caps.

The report showed that China's investment in high-tech sectors grew by 4.5 percent year-on-year in January-May, driven by robust AI-related demand at home and abroad. Moreover, strong external demand for technology-intensive goods sustained export momentum, while China's import growth also accelerated.

"The expansion in tech-related imports reflected accelerating AI-related capital expenditure and demand for components feeding into tech-intensive export production," the report noted.

Looking ahead, the World Bank report said risks to the outlook are broadly balanced, noting that risks of renewed volatility in terms of global energy supply and oil prices remain. "On the upside, growth could exceed current projections if fiscal stimulus and AI-related investments prove stronger than expected," it noted.

Notably, it recognizes the country's efforts to expand domestic demand. China's 15th Five-Year Plan elevates domestic demand as the structural foundation of growth and places employment and social policies more explicitly at the center of development strategy, according to the report.

"Further strengthening the social safety net would be a key measure to boost consumption. Raising benefit levels, extending coverage to informal workers, and providing access based on residence could give households the confidence to spend more rather than save," said Tatiana Rosito, World Bank Division Director for China, Mongolia and Korea.

The World Bank's new projection came as China is scheduled to release economic data for the first half of the year on July 15. A Chinese economist said China's economic performance has sustained its trajectory of overall stability while advancing toward innovation-driven and high-quality development as the Chinese government departments and local governments have effectively implemented more proactive macro policies.

Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, China's exports are expected to maintain a medium-to-high growth rate, Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

"As tensions ease in the Middle East, the retreat in global oil price benchmarks and reduced supply chain disruptions will aid global economic recovery and bolster Chinese exports. Coupled with continued rapid growth in global AI capital expenditures and the strengthening of diversified trade partnerships, China's export resilience is likely to persist," Wen said.