Joint research by Chinese and international scientists have found that the rate of long-term Antarctic mass loss has slowed, driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the remote tropical warm pool, China Central Television (CCTV) reported on Thursday, citing a statement released by the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).

The Antarctic ice sheet is one of the major sources of uncertainty in global sea-level rise forecasts. From 2003 to 2024, the Antarctic ice sheet lost an average of approximately 140.5 billion tons each year, CCTV reported.

However, Chinese and foreign scientists have found that the Antarctic ice sheet gained roughly 695 billion tons between July 2021 and April 2023, the largest 22-month mass gain seen in nearly two decades via satellite gravimetry, the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) announced on Thursday.

The scientists found out that from 2021 to 2023, sustained heavy snowfall in East Antarctica led to significant increases in snow accumulation, partially offsetting the ongoing ice loss in West Antarctica.

The scientists' research shows that this was caused by tropical ocean-driven atmospheric processes that altered moisture transport pathways and increased snowfall over Antarctica.

The research was conducted by the research team at the Institute of Oceanology at CAS, along with peers from countries including the US, Hungary and Japan. It was published in the academic journal Nature on Wednesday.

According to Wang Yunhe, first author of the research paper and an associate research fellow at the Institute of Oceanology, sea surface temperatures in the tropical western Pacific warm pool remained unusually warm from 2021 to 2023. As one of the regions with the highest sea surface temperatures and strongest heat release into the atmosphere worldwide, changes in this region can reshape atmospheric circulation.

The persistently warmer-than-normal seawater triggered large-scale atmospheric waves.

After reaching the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, the waves reshaped wind patterns and moisture transport pathways. Moisture-tracking simulations show that water vapor from the mid-latitude Indian Ocean fueled heavy snowfall in East Antarctica, leading to a recovery in ice sheet mass.

Observations and climate simulations suggest that such warming events occur roughly once a decade. But these temporary pauses are not enough to reverse Antarctica's long-term ice loss. The West Antarctic ice sheet continues to shrink, while parts of East Antarctica remain increasingly vulnerable to warmer ocean waters melting ice shelves from below and speeding the flow of glaciers into the sea.

The study shows how persistent warming in the tropical warm pool can contribute to the recovery of Antarctic ice-sheet mass, highlighting the role of East Antarctic atmospheric circulation in connecting tropical climate shifts with changes in the ice sheet. The findings point to a previously overlooked climate link between the tropical warm pool and East Antarctica, offering a new perspective on how distant climate systems may shape the continent's future.

Global Times