Super El Nino may raise risk of extreme rainfall in two regions of China this autumn, while lower Yangtze faces flood threat next year
Vehicles travel through a flooded road in Longwan district, Wenzhou, East China’s Zhejiang Province, on August 28. Photo: Screenshot from Xinhua News Agency
The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed El Nino formation and expects it to strengthen to a super El Niño in the coming months. China's National Climate Center (NCC) said its impacts will continue through autumn and winter as the event approaches its peak, with particularly pronounced effects expected next summer, according to the Xinhua News Agency.
El Nino is expected to continue influencing China's temperature and rainfall this autumn. Gao Rong, deputy director of the NCC, said rainfall is likely to be above normal across much of the Yangtze River basin and areas to its south, with southern China's Jiangnan region and eastern parts of southwestern China facing a higher risk of extreme rainfall.
Temperatures are also expected to remain unusually high in parts of southwestern and southern China, with further heatwaves possible in September, Gao said.
Gu Wei, chief forecaster at NCC, said the rapid development of El Nino contributed to climate anomalies in China this summer. Two major rain belts formed across eastern China, with widespread and intense downpours repeatedly hitting the same areas and causing compound disasters. Typhoons were also more active and stronger, bringing prolonged wind and rain. Monitoring data show that China received an average of 338.4 millimeters of rainfall from June to August, 2 percent above the seasonal average. The country was hit by 15 widespread rainstorm events, with rainfall reaching extreme levels in many areas. At 44 national weather stations, daily precipitation set new records.
China also saw more typhoons make landfall than usual, with their wind and rain impacts lasting longer and affecting wider areas. Seven typhoons made landfall in China this summer, compared with the seasonal average of 4.7. Three long-tracking typhoons — Bavi, Dolphin and Saudel — all came ashore near Kanmen in Yuhuan, East China's Zhejiang Province. Bavi was the strongest typhoon to make landfall in Zhejiang in July since 1949.
El Nino refers to the abnormal warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which can disrupt atmospheric circulation. China's National Climate Center said El Niño conditions emerged in May and intensified rapidly. The sea surface temperature index rose from 2.09 C in July to 2.59 C in August, both the highest for the respective months since 1951.
Gu Wei said El Nino's impact on rainfall is expected to strengthen this winter, bringing wetter-than-normal conditions to much of southern China. Temperatures will generally be warmer than usual, though frequent cold spells could cause sharp fluctuations.
Gu said El Nino's impact next summer is likely to be stronger than this year. Rainfall is expected to be above normal across central and eastern China, particularly in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, raising the risk of severe rainstorms and flooding. Heatwaves are also expected to become more pronounced in the Jianghuai, Jiangnan and South China regions.