Signs of China economic recovery renews hopes of growth in global consumer markets
By Lin Rui and Lu Baixuan
People's Daily app
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Hainan International Convention and Exhibition Center, Haikou, China's Hainan Province, May 9, 2021. (Photo: CFP)

Beijing (People's Daily) - In a potential sign that the world's second-largest economy is reviving in the early stages of 2023, the world's top consumer and luxury goods companies have seen sales grow in China.

"China's recovery momentum in January-February was good, especially the service industry production index which increased by 5.5 percent year-on-year and electricity consumption which increased by 2.4 percent," said Tang Yao, an associate professor of applied economics at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management. "Taking into account the assessment target of energy per unit of GDP, this power consumption growth rate matches the annual economic growth rate of 5 percent."

China's value-added industrial output, an important economic indicator on the supply side, went up 2.4 percent year on year in the first two months of 2023, expanding 1.1 percentage points from the level in December 2022, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released last week.

This aerial photo shows vehicles to be exported at a port in Lianyungang, east China's Jiangsu Province, Jan. 13, 2023. (Photo: Xinhua)

On the demand side, retail sales of consumer goods rose 3.5 percent, fixed-asset investment rose 5.5 percent and exports of goods 0.9 percent year on year.

The 3.5 percent growth was still lower than the pre-COVID level but was 5.3 percent points higher than December.

Beierdorf Chief Executive Vincent Warnery told Reuters his German skincare company had seen the first signs of recovery in China and the global travel retail business, fueled by the country's reopening.

"China is back to growth, not only online but also in brick and mortar," he was quoted as saying.

Chinese demand likely drove growth in the company's La Prairie and cheaper Eucerin and Nivea skincare ranges, Warnery believed.

US retailer Walmart, which operates nearly 400 retail and wholesale stores in China, reported strong traffic in its stores since the post-COVID-19 reopening.

Judith McKenna, CEO of Walmart International, told Reuters, "We have seen people returning more to stores, which is what you would expect, and also wanting to celebrate events."

US toothpaste maker Colgate-Palmolive has launched a new Colgate Whitening toothpaste in China and US transnational company Procter & Gamble is also reportedly carefully watching the sales trend of its high-end skincare lines.

Analysts at Citi last month forecasted that retail sales would grow 11 percent during 2023 to 50 trillion yuan ($7 trillion), the Financial Times reported.

Ming Liao, an employee of Prospect Avenue Capital, told the Financial Times the global investment company was keen to get back to doing business in China.

Global financial banks have raised their forecast for the world's second-largest economy: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lifted its projection for China's economic growth in 2023 to 5.2 percent. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and other investment banks have also revised upward their forecasts.

"The rebound in China will be a net positive for the economy. The growth effect should dominate," Thomas Helbling, deputy director of the IMF Asia and Pacific Department, told a February press briefing.

China's devotion to advancing opening-up has reinforced its appeal for foreign companies and investors amid flagging global economic recovery and headwinds of protectionism, said Beijing-based economics expert Tang.

"China and overseas markets are at different stages of the economic cycle," he said. "Overseas markets are experiencing rate hikes and slower growth in response to high inflation."

Economies such as the European Union are even at risk of recession, Tang said.

"China is struggling to maintain price stability, with healthy monetary and fiscal momentum providing an important stabilizing force against a backdrop of support from global consumer markets."