A container is lifted by a gantry crane at Suifenhe Railway Port in Suifenhe, an important Chinese port for trade with Russia, northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, Oct. 28, 2020. (Photo: Xinhua)

In October, Vladimir Putin participating at Valdai Discussion Club forum raised the possibility of forging a military alliance between Russia and China. He stressed that it is a theoretical thinking with no urgent need for it now. Still such an assumption raised for the first time since Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance collapsed in 1979 resonated tremendously around the world hitting top headlines.

The timing for such remarks should come as no surprise. Russia and China have already found their relations with the West at the lowest ebb, since the U.S. and EU united efforts to target both countries with economic restrictions and diplomatic alienation. However, China toed a very cautious line responding to Russian President's ideations – apparently seeking to avoid further escalation of already disrupted relations with the West.

Beijing stressed, "there is no limit to the traditional China-Russia friendship", but mutual military obligations are not necessary. China recognizes Russian concerns but is not keen on altering the well-balanced Moscow-Beijing bilateral cooperation model – when both states promote deep trust and vibrant collaboration on multitudinous issues while giving each other space to build-up relations with other partners.

It is noteworthy that Russia has changed how it addresses China following the full-fledged disengagement with the West on all major issues. If it has been a long-time practice to call Beijing a "partner" or a "friend" – in their recent remarks high-profile officials from the Kremlin opted for a rather strong word – "ally".

Russian President's Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on November 24 welcomed China's successful launch of a new "Chang'e-5" lunar exploration mission with congratulatory remarks to "our ally, our Chinese comrades". Earlier in July, Peskov commenting on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's proposition to establish anti-China block of democratic countries also referred to China as an "ally" with whom Moscow enjoys "special partnership". The first time when China was called an ally happened in 2018 amid the Russia-China joint military drills of "Vostok-2018".

China has always described the special nature of bilateral relations with Russia as "standing back to back". During the recent phone call with his Russian counterpart, China's Foreign minister Wang Yi stressed that Moscow and Beijing serves as "global stabilizers" contributing to mitigation of regional disputes. It is exemplified by Russian-Chinese coordination and joint criticism of Western countries' unilateral actions in Syria.

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi (L) and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, September 11, 2020. (Photo: Chinese Foreign Ministry)

Russia does not anticipate any improvements of relations with the U.S. under new U.S. administration since American political elite has reached the consensus about Russian threat. Despite Russian diplomatic efforts to prove its commitment to global peace, the West has an opposite interpretation. No substantial breakthrough for Russia-EU dealings concerning Ukraine has ever been achieved with Kiev pushing on its cooperation with NATO.

Russia has failed to prevent arms control mechanism from falling apart, with the only remaining hope for the new U.S. administration to restrain itself from putting the final nail in the coffin of New START nuclear arms treaty. This fall's political turmoil in Russian brotherhood state – Belarus – also calls into question the limits and trustworthiness of their alliance since Belarusian President suspected Moscow of masterminding a coup plot.

The world has become more contentious and polarized with global powers striving for finding like-minded partners to withstand accumulating external pressure. The U.S. and EU sanctions have been contributing to Russia-China expanding entente. Now Moscow and Beijing are featured in all the major American and European strategy-planning papers. A range of issues such as the growing tensions in South China Sea, and the key role of Ukraine in Biden's foreign policy drafting – have spurred Russia and China to seek to hedge risks and deepen their partnership networks.

China is well aware of the challenges presented by bellicose U.S. foreign policy. New national development plan for 2035 outlines China's intention to build "fully modern army" by 2027.

For a long time EU concentrated on Russia and avoided depicting China as a threat. New NATO report published on December 2 has changed the pattern. Now China is believed to "undermine allies' security". Since the report focuses on longer-term planning period of 10 years, one may expect that China and Russia now occupy not only American military radar but also most of the EU countries' as well.

However, the likelihood of military block between Russia and China is still very low. For Russia – feeling globally besieged – it is a sign of political support from one of the influential great powers, but for China it is not that critical.

Beijing already gets advanced military technology (Russia accounted for 70% of Chinese arms imports in 2014-2018), participates in military drills on Russian territory and jointly develop early warning missiles system. China has already formed deep-trust state of security relations with Russia, seeing no practical need to formalize it further.