Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Editor's Note:

The world is facing great changes unseen in a century, and China's diplomacy is facing new tasks in this new era. In such context, the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS) held a seminar on October 25 to discuss the changing global situation and celebrate the 60th anniversary of its founding. Will China-US relations fall into downward spiral after the US presidential election? Will the US keep playing the Taiwan card and even abandon its "strategic ambiguity" over Taiwan? The Global Times collected the opinions of three experts at a concurrent session of the seminar.

Yang Youming, former Chinese ambassador to Zambia

China-US relations are entering a new period in which there are three stages. The first stage involves China catching up with the US, the second is China surpasses the US, and the third entails further adjustments after China's surpassing. We are now in the first stage. Thus, there will be more conflicts between the two countries.

The US' geo-strategic containment of China is inevitable. To what extent will the US decouple with China economically depends on whether or not the US wants the Chinese market anymore. Can the US resolve the contradictions between the political needs of containing China and the capital needs of maximizing profits?

Like it or not, China and the US will continue to get along. There are many challenges with current China-US relations, and the two countries will not go back to the past because the US' mentality has changed. What can China do about this?

First, China should have firm resolution. China-US relations will not remain calm, and it will be difficult for China's strengths to eventually surpass the US for a long time to come.

Once China's GDP surpasses that of the US, it will be a historic event. Before that, China will be suppressed. We should overcome any hardships with resilient methods. The US is like a boxer who cannot wait to knock us down with a punch. But we have room to maneuver. China is not going to fight with the US, but only seeks cooperation amid these inevitable struggles.

Second, we should have a broad vision. China-US relations are not the whole picture of international relations. Indeed, China-US relations should be examined under the overall framework of world affairs. In addition to the US, China's diplomacy still has ample room for development.

Third, we need to be patient. China's rise is not a day's work. And time is on our side. Even if China's GDP surpasses that of the US in the future, the US is still a powerful country in terms of overall strength. We should be prepared to get along with the US in the long run.

Xin Qiang, deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University

Over the past few years, the Trump administration's China policy has undergone major adjustments in four aspects. First, it has officially identified China as a main strategic rival. Second, after the end of the Cold War, the US tried to change China into a country more like the US.  But now it has completely failed, and the Trump administration works daily to comprehensively contain China.

Third, the US has abandoned its win-win mentality and adopted a zero-sum modus operandi. Fourth, cooperation and competition used to coexist in China-US relations. It did not hinder the two countries' cooperation in science, technology and trade. But the Trump administration has completely subverted this situation.

Now, there is basically a lack of mutual trust between the two countries, and it seems the bottom-line thinking no longer exists. The US is judging China from the worst (and most evil) point of view.

China and the US also lack high-level political interactions now. In the context of all-round confrontation, the two sides have almost no willingness to engage in political interaction with each other today.

Moreover, the two countries have almost no areas of cooperation now. What makes the Chinese people feel shocked is that even in terms of a global public security crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic, the two countries still cannot carry out substantive cooperation. If this is the case, how can we work together in other areas?

If Trump is reelected, the above-mentioned tensions will further escalate. Trump may make some tactical adjustments, but the basic trend is clear - China and the US will not escape a downward spiral.

If Joe Biden is elected, he will still regard China as a strategic rival and contain China's development. He may not lift pressure on China. For example, the two countries' disputes may escalate on issues regarding Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet and other human rights issues.

Hu Lingwei, deputy research fellow of the Institute for Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao Studies, SIIS

The US has been playing the Taiwan card. Washington has tried to clear obstacles for its interference in Taiwan through Congress legislation, increased high-level official visits to Taiwan, and sold weapons to Taiwan - some of which are obviously offensive. US warships have repeatedly sailed through the Taiwan Straits.

But there are also disputes between Taiwan and the US. Taiwan plays a very small part of US' worldwide strategy. The US and Taiwan have different strategic guidelines for enhancing their ties. The US only wants to use Taiwan to counterbalance the mainland and provoke China. It also hopes for an economic decoupling between Taiwan and the mainland, and is trying to rope Taiwan into its Indo-Pacific Strategy. However, Taiwan hopes to win US security commitments and substantially improve their trade ties.

Will the US abandon its longtime posture of "strategic ambiguity" over Taiwan question and turn to "strategic clarity"? Not yet. Currently, Washington has not fundamentally changed its strategic ambiguity. It has only made some adjustments. The US has become clearer in terms of opposing the mainland and preventing reunification across the Straits. But the US still maintains ambiguity in whether it will send troops to protect Taiwan. Washington may still emphasize that Taiwan should shoulder the responsibility of protecting itself, which means it maintains the continuity of its Taiwan policy.