In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.0 percent year-on-year, ranking top among the world's major economies. However, the second quarter saw a slight slowdown with a 4.7 percent year-on-year increase. 

This photo taken on May 31, 2024 shows a city view of Beijing, capital of China. (Xinhua/Chen Yehua)

These figures, highlighted in China's economic semi-annual report, have drawn significant attention both domestically and internationally. The international community has generally seen positive signals in China's semi-annual report.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2024 economic growth forecast for China to 5 percent in an update to its World Economic Outlook, up 0.4 percentage points from previous forecasts. Other international institutions such as the World Bank, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS also raised their growth projections for China. 

However, some Western media continue to predict a downturn, pointing to a slowdown in second-quarter year-on-year growth and claiming that the economic data lacks momentum, shows weak growth and sluggish domestic demand.

Does the slowdown in second-quarter year-on-year growth mean that China's economy is entering a downward phase? Certainly not. 

Instead it reflects the characteristics of a wave-like, tortuous progress, with the country's long-term sound economic fundamentals remaining unchanged.

From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, since the third quarter of 2022, China's GDP growth rate has maintained positive growth for eight consecutive quarters, indicating an increasingly stable recovery trend.

In the second quarter, China's economic output exceeded 32 trillion yuan ($4.4 trillion), with industrial added value and total imports and exports each surpassing 10 trillion yuan. 

This growth is particularly impressive when considering that a 1 percent increase in China's GDP today equates to an increment roughly equivalent to a 2.1 percentage point rise a decade ago.

After three years of the pandemic, the global economy is in recovery, with China's stable growth playing a crucial role. In recent years, China has consistently contributed around 30 percent to global growth. 

According to IMF research, each 1 percent increase in China's economy boosts the output of other economies by an average of 0.3 percentage points. Many international observers conclude that China, along with other emerging Asian economies, continues to be a primary engine of the global economy based on this year's performance.

How should we interpret the year-on-year slowdown in the second quarter? What can we expect for the economy in the second half of the year and beyond?

A slightly higher economic growth rate doesn't necessarily indicate exceptional strength, nor does a lower growth rate signal dire trouble. 

This photo taken on March 15, 2024 shows the construction site of a residential complex under an urban renewal project in Jing'an District of East China's Shanghai. (Xinhua/Fang Zhe)

China is currently navigating a critical period of economic recovery and transformation, contending with a variety of complex factors and challenges: unlocking domestic demand potential, ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, boosting market confidence and enhancing the effectiveness and efficacy of macroeconomic policies. 

Economic development has never been a plain sailing. It's essential to stay composed and focus on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations. 

In terms of performance, China has achieved a stable performance while at the same time securing progress in its economy. Positive factors are accumulated. 

Stable employment, bumper summer harvests, strong energy security and moderately rising prices all indicate a solid foundation for development.

Developing new quality productive forces, continuously advancing a green-oriented transition and increasingly more newness and greenness in development indicate a growing development momentum. 

A drone photo taken on July 17, 2024 shows two China-Europe freight trains running through the Manzhouli railway port in Manzhouli, North China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. 

In the first half of the year, the cumulative growth rate of industrial product exports has accelerated month by month. In the second quarter, passenger transport volume, freight transport volume and electricity consumption have maintained rapid growth, indicating a gradual increase in economic activity.

In June the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for high-tech manufacturing expanded for its eighth month, while equipment manufacturing has seen expansion for four months. 

The index of enterprise expectations for manufacturing activities stood at 54.4 percent, suggesting that market expectations are progressively improving and confidence across all sectors is strengthening.

Looking ahead, macroeconomic policies are expected to continue making an impact. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its economic outlook for China, citing the government's initiatives to upgrade old consumer goods and large-scale equipment as a dual boost for both consumption and investment. 

The IMF also anticipates that China's consumption is gradually recovering and is projected to return to pre-pandemic levels in the coming years.

As renewal and trade-in policies continue to take effect, previously issued special bonds and ultra-long special treasury bonds will gradually transform into tangible projects. 

The real estate financing coordination mechanism will advance and the trend of steady recovery in China's economy will be continuously consolidated and enhanced.

China's economic outlook will remain steady and positive in the long run.

In 2020 China was the only major economy globally to achieve positive growth. In 2021 China's GDP surged by 8.4 percent, surpassing the forecasts of many international organizations. 

Despite a slower 3 percent growth rate in 2022, China still outpaced the United States, Germany and Japan. 

In 2023 China's economy grew 5.2 percent, positioning it among the top performers in the world's leading economies. 

Over a broader period, from 2013 to 2023, China maintained an average annual growth rate of 6.1 percent, contributing over 30 percent to global economic growth each year. 

These robust achievements highlight China's establishment of a solid economic foundation marked by stable and resilient growth. 

With a vast talent pool, a well-developed economic system and advantages on both the demand and supply sides, China remains resilient to risks and challenges, ensuring steady and sustainable economic growth.

Apart from existing strengths, China's economy is also gaining new momentum. The July 15-18 third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China concluded with the adoption of the Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Deepening Reform Comprehensively to Advance Chinese Modernization (Resolution). 

This resolution demonstrates not only China's commitment to expanding the comprehensive reform in both width and depth, but also its ambition to push for Chinese modernization in the new era.

Building a high-standard socialist market economy, promoting high-quality economic development, supporting all-around innovation, improving macroeconomic governance, promoting integrated urban-rural development and pursuing high-standard opening up: These measures planned over the next five years will gradually take effect and the fruits of further deepening reforms will be fully unleashed, injecting strong momentum into China's economic development.

As the National Bureau of Statistics has explained, the trend remains positive despite fluctuations. 

China has the determination, capabilities and economic foundation to achieve its goals for economic and social development for the year. 

History has repeatedly proven and will continue to prove that the trend of pursuing high-quality development and the economic fundamentals that will sustain long-term growth remain unchanged. 

China's economy has lived through difficulties and challenges, and it will not collapse due to the so-called "China collapse" theory nor peak due to the "China peak" theory. 

As the British economist John Ross said, "about every two years, there's something published saying that China is about to collapse. It never does."

(Translated by Han Wen, Jiang Qi and Fei Sihan)