China's just released government work report has set the main projected development goal for this year: economic growth of 4.5-5 percent, with efforts to strive for better results in practice.

The target range takes into account both the present and the long term, the domestic and international situations, needs and possibilities, as well as favorable conditions and unfavorable factors. It is a proactive target, a target that follows objective laws, a target that reflects effective quality improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, and at the same time, a target that is fully achievable through hard work and for which even better results can be strived for.

What is the basis for this? Let us examine it one by one.

This is a proactive target. The range fully takes into account evolving domestic and international situations as well as changes in the development environment.

During the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030), China's development environment is predicted to undergo profound and complex changes. Domestically, population aging is deepening, hard constraints such as resource and environmental limits are tightening, and traditional drivers of economic growth are gradually weakening. Externally, economic globalization is facing headwinds, geopolitical risks are intensifying, and global economic growth remains sluggish. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth to be 3.3 percent in 2026.

Against this backdrop, the target range fully takes into account various domestic and international factors, as well as our strengths, conditions, risks and challenges.

File photo of the Bund in east China's Shanghai. (Photo: VCG)

This is a target that follows economic laws. From the perspective of the general laws of global economic development, it is a common phenomenon that the larger an economy becomes, the more its growth rate tends to stabilize.

China's economic aggregate has reached a new level. In 2025, its GDP surpassed the threshold of 140 trillion yuan ($20.4 trillion), and its annual economic increment alone is equivalent to the total economic output of a medium-sized economy. Meanwhile, the factor endowments and allocation efficiency supporting China's economic development have undergone significant changes, and constraints related to resources and the environment have become more prominent.

"As the economic aggregate grows larger, stronger momentum is required to move it forward." We must clearly recognize that the larger and more advanced an economy becomes, the higher the requirements and the greater the difficulty of sustaining development. This also means that achieving each additional percentage point of GDP growth demands greater efforts and the capacity to overcome more complex challenges.

From the perspective of China's development practice, to basically realize socialist modernization, it is essential to maintain reasonable economic growth on the premise of improving quality and efficiency. Reaching the per capita GDP level of moderately developed countries is an important indicator of basically realizing socialist modernization.

Working backward from the long-range objectives through 2035 and taking into account the projected population size, China's GDP needs to grow at an average annual rate of about 4.17 percent during the 15th and 16th Five-Year Plan periods. Considering factor supply, technological progress and institutional innovation, China's potential growth rate in the coming decade is fully capable of supporting an average annual growth of around 4.17 percent.

Viewed in the overall context of Chinese modernization, the expected growth target of "4.5 to 5 percent" both aligns with medium- and long-term development goals and helps ensure steady progress toward basically realizing socialist modernization. It is a scientific and well-grounded target that is attainable through sustained efforts, consistent with China's current development stage and economic laws, and supported by solid foundations and favorable conditions.

This is a goal that reflects an effective improvement in quality and a reasonable growth in quantity. To achieve high-quality development, it is necessary to constantly enhance the efficiency of utilizing labor, capital, land, resources and the environment, continuously increase the contributions of scientific and technological progress, and improve total factor productivity.

According to estimates, to basically realize socialist modernization by 2035, China's average annual growth rate of total factor productivity needs to be maintained at around two percent. The key lies in promoting the aggregation of various advanced factors of production toward the development of new quality productive forces.

Focusing on both quality and quantity, the expected target of 4.5-5 percent growth is more comprehensive. It not only provides scientific guidance for quantity increases, but also sets higher requirements for quality improvement. Such an expected target reflects the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, as well as the improvement of both quality and efficiency. It also embodies the profound changes in development concepts, methods, and impetus.

This is a goal that is completely achievable with dedicated effort and one that allows room for even better outcomes. The 15th Five-Year Plan period is a crucial time. From the perspective of the historical timeline, there are only 10 years left before socialist modernization is basically achieved by 2035. However, China's development is now in a period where strategic opportunities, risks and challenges coexist. There are also more uncertain and unpredictable factors.

The more pressing the time, the more complex the situation, and the more critical the initial stage of our endeavor, the more we must maintain strategic resolve, strengthen confidence in development, and carry forward the spirit of hard work. We should stay focused on running our own affairs well, and address the uncertainties in the international environment with the certainty of high-quality development.

Chinese modernization should be achieved step by step. It is undoubtedly important to set a scientific and reasonable economic growth target. However, it is equally important to take on responsibilities and act in a down-to-earth, realistic, pragmatic and practical manner. It is thus highly timely to carry out a Party-wide campaign on establishing and practicing a correct understanding of what it means to perform well.

We value the speed of growth but do not treat it as the only criterion. We will do our utmost to strive for the best results, move forward steadily step by step, advance solidly stage by stage, and keep turning small victories into major successes. In this way, we will surely achieve our goals.

(Translated by Lu Mengjie, Wu Siyi and Ye Qianyu; Edited by Ni Tao, Shan Xin and Zhu Yingqi)