Recently, leaders of the five Nordic countries and Canada issued a joint statement announcing plans to advance shared principles and interests through regular, multi-level meetings. International observers see this as an emerging "middle power" alliance aimed at reducing dependence on the United States.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's stark warning earlier this year captured the growing anxiety among traditional US allies.
"If we are not at the table, we will be on the menu," he said amid resurgent power politics and shifting global rules. His prescription? Middle powers must awaken.
To understand this geopolitical shift's implications, three questions merit examination.
First, what defines middle powers?
These states occupy the middle tier of the global hierarchy. They lack superpower dominance but resist subordination to major powers, wielding meaningful economic strength, diplomatic agency and regional influence.
Their growing assertiveness reflects fundamental global transformations. Intensifying geopolitical competition has destabilized international systems, while hegemonic actions increasingly threaten core national interests. Middle powers are therefore prioritizing strategic autonomy and cooperation.
Second, how does their rise reshape global dynamics?
This activism accelerates multipolarity's irreversible advance. A 2026 report by Australia's Institute for Economics and Peace shows that middle powers are profoundly reshaping the global power balance—a trend that will shape the international order over the next two decades.
True multipolarity extends beyond power redistribution: it enables diverse development models, governance approaches and civilizational coexistence. As middle powers counter unilateralism through coordinated positions, they help balance a system long dominated by few powers.
Yet caution remains necessary. Cooperation shouldn't undermine multilateralism. If middle-power alliances prioritize exclusive interests over universal rules, they risk becoming new factional blocs that heighten geopolitical rivalry. Lasting autonomy requires confronting structural dependencies on hegemonic powers, not merely reacting to their policies.
Third, how can middle powers strengthen global stability?
Faced with turbulence and transformation, middle powers have a legitimate need to safeguard their rights and interests. But they should address root causes in global order and governance, helping shape an environment more conducive to peace and development.
They should work toward an equal and orderly multipolar world where all countries—regardless of size or strength—are equal stakeholders abiding by universally recognized international rules. Only then can their "awakening" become a driving force for cooperation that delivers sustained benefits to world peace and development.
Middle powers must uphold the international rule of law as the foundation for fairness and justice. They should defend their legitimate rights within international law, faithfully observe the UN Charter and other basic norms of international relations, and reject double standards.
They also need to stand united against hegemonism and power politics—the most prominent challenges destabilizing the international order today. By uniting with the broader international community to build multilateral consensus, middle powers can play a greater role in safeguarding global stability.
The way forward: Transcending the "menu or table" paradigm means addressing root causes. By abandoning zero-sum mentalities and embracing inclusive, mutually beneficial multilateral cooperation, middle powers can forge stability through consensus and sustain their vital contributions to global peace, stability, and shared prosperity.