In a region facing growing external uncertainty, China's standing in Southeast Asia appears to be strengthening. The State of Southeast Asia 2026 Survey by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute suggests that expectations of China in the region continue to rise. A majority of respondents now expect their countries' relations with China to improve over the next three years, an increase from last year's survey.
File photo of Singapore. (Photo by IC)
China also remains the region's most influential economic power, its most influential political-strategic power, and the dialogue partner seen as most strategically relevant to ASEAN. The findings point to a relationship with China that has become more deeply embedded in the region's strategic and economic calculations. However, the survey also suggests that China's growing appeal should not be read as unqualified trust or simple alignment. It is better understood as a pragmatic response to a partner seen as present, consequential and capable of delivery.
What seems to be driving China's stronger standing is a combination of policy continuity, economic centrality, institutional presence and visible outcomes in diplomacy. In a region more sensitive to external volatility, these attributes matter. They help explain why expectations of China have improved. China's challenge, therefore, is not simply to be influential but to translate that influence into durable confidence.
Pragmatism, Not Sentiment
One of the clearest messages from the survey is that China's appeal in Southeast Asia is rooted above all in pragmatism. For the first time since the survey began in 2019, regional trust in China now exceeds distrust. Among those who trust China, the leading reason is not ideological affinity or cultural identification, but the belief that China possesses the economic resources and political will to provide global leadership. That is telling. It suggests that many respondents see China less as an abstract power and more as a state with the capacity to act, deliver and shape outcomes.
This also helps explain why expectations of improved relations with China are gaining ground. China is geographically proximate, deeply integrated into regional trade and production networks and consistently present in ASEAN-led diplomacy. That combination of proximity and embeddedness is difficult to replicate by other powers. China's ties with ASEAN are now carried through dense institutionalized cooperation under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, the new 2026-2030 Plan of Action, ASEAN Plus One mechanisms, ASEAN Plus Three, the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN Regional Forum and the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting-Plus. In other words, China is not engaging Southeast Asia episodically but is deeply enmeshed in the region's everyday diplomatic and economic life.
This continuity matters. The 2026-2030 Plan of Action calls for stronger coordination, monitoring and implementation across political-security, economic, socio-cultural and cross-sectoral cooperation. The 28th ASEAN-China Summit in 2025 also welcomed 2026 as the ASEAN-China Year on the Fifth Anniversary of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This reflects a relationship that ASEAN and China are actively trying to structure, deepen and institutionalize. For many in Southeast Asia, that kind of continuity can itself be reassuring.
Delivery Still Matters Most
If China's appeal is pragmatic, it is also practical. The survey suggests that China continues to benefit from being associated with tangible economic relevance. It remains the economic power most widely seen as influential in Southeast Asia. It also performs relatively strongly on the question of who can champion global free trade, coming in second after ASEAN. In a period marked by geoeconomic fragmentation, this is important. Regional respondents are not only asking who is more influential, but also who appears willing and able to keep markets open, sustain connectivity and maintain a predictable business environment.
This is where recent developments in ASEAN-China economic cooperation have likely reinforced positive expectations. The signing of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) 3.0 Upgrade Protocol in October 2025 was an important step. ASEAN leaders explicitly acknowledged its strategic value in creating a reliable, predictable and stable business environment amid current geoeconomic challenges. More importantly, ACFTA 3.0 is not simply an update to an older tariff-reducing agreement. It brings in new areas such as the digital economy, green economy, supply chain connectivity, competition, consumer protection and support for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), while deepening existing commitments on customs procedures, standards, technical regulations, and trade facilitation. That makes the relationship more future-oriented and better equipped to address global challenges.
This practical orientation is visible beyond trade agreements. ASEAN-China cooperation has expanded in digital governance, public health, disaster management, climate-related capacity-building, education, tourism, smart cities and agricultural cooperation. The 28th ASEAN-China Summit also welcomed continued work on scholarships and people-to-people exchanges, including the ASEAN-China Young Leaders Scholarship Program. Tourism has also recovered strongly, with arrivals from China to ASEAN reaching 20.4 million in 2024. These are the kinds of visible outcomes that make a major power feel relevant in the daily lives of Southeast Asian governments, firms and citizens.
The political-security side of the relationship should not be overlooked either. China was the first ASEAN dialogue partner to accede to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia in 2003, and the first nuclear-weapon state to express its intention to accede to the Protocol of the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone. These are important markers of China's willingness to work within ASEAN's diplomatic norms and regional frameworks. It helps explain why China is often seen as institutionally serious about ASEAN rather than merely transactional toward it.
Converting Influence into Confidence
If the 2026 survey shows that China's regional appeal is growing, the next task is to ensure that this momentum is consolidated in ways that are durable and confidence-building.
First, the implementation of ACFTA 3.0 will be important. The protocol's value lies not only in what it promises on paper, but in whether firms and citizens see real benefits in customs procedures, digital trade, green transition, supply chain connectivity and MSME participation. Visible implementation would reinforce the perception that ASEAN-China cooperation continues to generate practical gains.
Second, the new 2026-2030 Plan of Action should be used to prioritize a narrower set of high-impact deliverables. The relationship is already broad and deep. What it now needs is sharper focus. Areas such as food security, smart agriculture, digital ecosystems, public health, education, sustainable transport, climate adaptation and capacity-building for less-developed ASEAN members are especially promising because they speak directly to the region's developmental needs.
Finally, ASEAN centrality should remain visible in the relationship. The more China's regional role is exercised through ASEAN-led platforms and aligned with ASEAN's own priorities, the more sustainable its appeal is likely to be. China has long shown that it takes ASEAN's institutional role seriously.
The survey demonstrates that China's rising appeal in Southeast Asia depends on continuity, proximity, institutional embeddedness, and tangible delivery. These are strengths that help explain why expectations of improved ties continue to rise.
(The author is senior fellow and coordinator at the ASEAN Studies Centre, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore)