Editor's note: Timothy Kerswell, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a distinguished research fellow at the Development Watch Centre in Kampala, Uganda. He is an Australian who has lived in China's Macao Special Administrative Region for seven years. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

China-Australia relations have entered a more stable and constructive period. The value of this stabilization can be measured in practical terms: Expanding dialogue, stronger commercial confidence, renewed visits and a clearer framework for cooperation. For Australia, constructive relations with China are a core national interest.

China remains central to Australia's economic life. In 2025, Australian exports to China were worth $195.6 billion AUD. That placed China far ahead of Japan at $65.1 billion AUD, the United States at $59.9 billion  AUD, South Korea at $44.2 billion AUD and India at $32.2 billion AUD. Australia exported roughly as much to China as it did to its next three major export markets combined. Two-way trade reached $326 billion AUD, with China accounting for 29% of Australia's exports. These figures point to a structural reality in Australia's external economic life.

The sheer size of the relationship tells its own story. The deep complementarity of the two economies sees Australia provide resources, energy, agriculture, education services and tourism experiences. China offers market scale, industrial capacity, purchasing power and demand unparalleled in most other countries. The relationship spans iron ore shipments to Western Australia, wool, beef and lithium; LNG, wine and barley; universities; airlines; and tourism operators. It is embedded in our national income, regional jobs and long-term investment plans.

So too are the benefits of stable relations writ large across our export sectors. Western Australian iron ore feeds China's steel industry and Australia's trade surplus. Lithium connects Australia's minerals to Chinese battery technology and electric vehicles. Farmers and agricultural exporters enjoy Chinese consumers' desire for safe, reliable high-quality food and fiber. Australian service providers are able to capitalize on opportunities in education, tourism, logistics and professional exchanges. Stability allows these sectors to invest with confidence, make plans and build lasting commercial ties.

That confidence is translated into practical benefits. Resource and agricultural producers who make decisions about planting, storage, transport, contracts, and market development do so with some expectation that the external environment will be reasonably predictable. Universities making decisions about recruitment and research partnerships expect some confidence that educational exchanges will not be disrupted. Tourism operators, airlines and hotel chains want confidence that travel will continue to open up, not that it will suddenly contract. Stable political relations provide the foundation for normal commercial activity.

Australia has every interest in diversifying its markets, but it does so most effectively when it broadens opportunity without undercutting existing relationships. China will remain a major customer for Australian resources, energy, agriculture, and services. The challenge for Australia is how to engage with China confidently and steadfastly protect our national interests where they need to be protected, while preserving the mechanisms that allow this relationship to continue to develop in a positive way.

The relationship's social foundations are significant too. Between January and October 2025, there were about 192,000 Chinese students in Australia, accounting for 23% of the total international cohort. They provide social value in classrooms and labs, the rental market, hospitality precincts and graduate job markets. Education exchanges also generate long-term familiarity: Alumni associations, research collaborations, professional networks and friendships, plus family ties when students return home. These people help embed the relationship socially.

Tourism displays a similar nexus of diplomacy, economic exchange and day-to-day social interaction. Chinese visitors to Australia reached one million in the year to December 2025, a 17% increase on the previous year. Chinese tourists spent a record $12.3 billion AUD in Australia in the year to September 2025, an increase of 29% from the prior year. This activity props up airlines, hotels, restaurants, retailers, art galleries, tour companies, and regional cities and towns. But its importance doesn't stop at GDP: Tourism supports regular people-to-people contact that diplomacy alone cannot.

These exchanges add weight and substance to the relationship. High-level diplomacy is important but so too are universities, city councils, museums, business chambers, think tanks and family connections. A sustainable China-Australia relationship is built on many strands. The more strands there are, the more the relationship is based on people's lived experiences, institutional exchange and shared practical interests.

The logic for stability also lies in the requirements of regional and global governance. China is a necessary partner if we want to make serious progress on climate change, clean energy technology supply chains, regional development, public health security, global financial stability and economic integration in the Asia-Pacific. Australia can exercise more influence on these issues the more it can engage directly and constructively with China. Diplomacy is most useful when it helps countries with different interests, political systems and strategic views to cooperate with each other.

Consider climate change. This provides the most comprehensive example of why cooperation makes sense. Australia has renewable resources, critical minerals, scientific capacity and ambitions to develop a green industry. China has manufacturing capacity and technological capability, and it is critical to global emissions reduction. Solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles, green metals and critical-mineral supply chains are all at the nexus of Australian resources and Chinese industrial capacity. Practical cooperation on these areas serves both countries and the wider regional transition to low-carbon growth.

Regional order in the Asia-Pacific simply requires that the major economic partners talk. Every country in the region wants development, stability, and the freedom to make its own decisions. Australia is most influential when it can be a confident regional power capable of working with multiple partners on a range of problems. Stable relations with China give Australia’s diplomacy more room to move. They allow Canberra to engage on shared interests, manage differences through established channels and contribute to regional order through dialogue and perseverance.

The outcomes of the China-Australia Annual Leaders' Meeting in July 2025  demonstrate this point. While the joint statement dealt with practical issues such as tourism, trade, education, and new cooperation mechanisms, leaders also agreed to meet again in 2026. Meetings like this build a rhythm of contact. In a complicated regional picture, that kind of contact is a form of strategic stability.

A positive relationship with China complements Australia's values and institutions. Stable political ties allow Australia to manage complexity while advancing its interests. Australia can pursue that relationship confidently, secure in the knowledge that China will remain vital to regional prosperity for the foreseeable future. China benefits from reliable relations with Australia – a leading supplier of vital resources; a society with longstanding people-to-people links; and a trusted educational and commercial partner for Chinese citizens.

Stable political ties anchor the Australia-China relationship. They keep open channels for trade, education, tourism, climate action and regional cooperation on transnational challenges. They also allow both countries to manage a relationship in an increasingly complex strategic environment. For Australia, positive engagement with China means approaching that relationship with strategic realism. It means recognizing that our prosperity, influence and capacity to tackle global challenges all depend on our ability to maintain a stable, constructive and forward-looking relationship with Beijing.

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