Observer: Be wary of the trade war 'domino effect'
By Dong Feng
People's Daily app
1532244349000

11213205tifo.jpg

The European Commission took retaliatory measures last week, including a 25 percent tariff on 23 steel products, calling it a Tariff Rate Quota. 

The countermeasures will be enforced for at most 200 days. The quota will be allocated on a first come, first serve basis. 

Since the Trump administration imposed import tariffs on several countries, they have not only taken countermeasures but also taken measures to protect their economies.

The aftermath of the new tariffs and trade barriers will have an impact on more economies, triggering a domino effect. Global trade liberalization and integration may be getting shaken by US government moves, which also threaten the world economy. 

As Cecilia Malmstrom, the European Union’s trade commissioner, said, "The US tariffs on steel products are causing trade diversion, which may result in serious harm to EU steelmakers and workers in this industry. We are left with no other choice than to introduce provisional safeguards to protect our domestic industry against a surge of imports. These measures nevertheless ensure that the EU market remains open, and will maintain traditional trade flows."

Speaking of counterpunches, a new Ipsos poll gives a peek into how Canadians view their nation’s new tensions with the US.  Seventy percent said they will look for ways to avoid purchasing US-made products following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s tiff with Trump. But that show of patriotism may be difficult for Canadians to pull off since—as Reuters notes—US pop culture and consumer goods are revered in Canada; it is the largest market for US products.

Next question is will the US government be able to keep unemployment numbers down against such a backdrop? 

And it is not surprising to see many countries mentioned in the 2018 Special 301 Report published by the US Trade Representative, which uses intellectual property rights issues as an alibi. 

Multinational corporations, including those based in the US, are the leaders in the global value chain, accounting for 80 percent of global trade, according to data released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. 

The Trump administration is blocking its own door by preventing further industrial transfers and programs by US multinationals related to technology transfer or technology cooperation, even blocking global value chain linkages through tax incentives (or even tariff penalties) and government procurement. The US government is also serving its own political needs by interfering in overseas production arrangements of US multinationals. These are not conducive to US competitiveness and trade.

French finance and economy minister Bruno Le Maire expected "a change of attitude" from Trump, otherwise "there will be no choice other than to retaliate." By waging a trade war, Trump’s government is lifting a rock and licking its own feet. 

In fact, the United States needs to reform. Ninety-one percent of all income growth between 2009 and 2012 was enjoyed by the wealthiest one percent of Americans, according to Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist. 

This is the root cause of economic and social problems in the US. Waging a trade war is meant to distract citizens from domestic issues.

US trade protectionism has disrupted and hindered the development of global trade liberalization, forcing many countries to hit back. Once trade war clouds develop, a domino effect in the global economy will lead to a downturn, which could affect multilateral trade within the aegis of the World Trade Organization.