Since the last presidential election, the foreign and domestic policies of the US have been very difficult to forecast. Domestic instability has had a negative impact on all aspects of US foreign policy.
The administration's policies demonstrate an inconsistent approach to all important international initiatives, world and regional problems and even strategic agreements.
Until now, President Trump has demonstrated his inability to get rid of his image as the country's “president-elect” rather become what is considered to be a legitimate president. That restricts his power and positions him as a weak leader, even though he is in charge of the most powerful state in the world.
Congress and Senate elections in November will be decisive for him and his administration. Can he make the decisions that will cement his position as US President?
Until he does, it will be impossible to truly predict US foreign policy.
This means American initiatives in world affairs today should be judged as coming from an uncertain administration, rather than taken at face value.
For example, the new sanctions against Russia are not a personal initiative of President Trump but come from those who are fighting him in from within his administration. That is clearly understood in Moscow, as it seems to me.
He sends clear signals that he intends to have a better relationship with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), Iran and the Russian Federation.
Moscow understands the reality of the situation and the problems for Trump and his administration, which we have seen in official documents. The recently published exchange of views by Lavrov-Pompeo is clear evidence of this.
Since the Helsinki summit, there has been an understanding between Trump and Putin about not swaying public opinion before the November elections.
The next summit, according to official publications, could be at the beginning of next year. But the fact that Trump publicly declared he is ready to come to Moscow, and that Putin is willing to go to Washington, shows their will to improve ties and work on solving regional and global problems together.
It is necessary to note that Trump is very experienced in global business, but not in global politics.
His behavior is dictated in many cases by his experience in the business realm, but not by the advice he is given by his staff, who have also not worked for long in global politics.
Russia is ready to accept any offers from Trump in terms of the format and location of the next meeting, whether it be in Washington or Moscow.
But Trump will only be able to make a decision after November's mid-term elections.
As his family members, staff and policies are all under fire, we understand why Trump is careful in making political decisions.
With that being said, it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t consider that his opposition could become more dominant in the future. That would mean principal decisions would be imposed on him, even though he is the president. And that is a big difference.
All options should be on a table in regards to what is to come this year.
For Russia, as for all major European countries, there is no other way forward than to strengthen Euro-Asian ties, to construct new political configuration for the world.
The uncertainty of American policy doesn’t give European countries any options. On the contrary, that will only come from a guarantee of stability and balance in the world policy.
Western Europe is unlikely, and in many ways, unable, to make a stand in face of US pressure. But national economic interests will push them in the direction of a China-Russia core, which will provide them with stable development opportunities.
The US should agree to accept this “new world order” and restrain from unilateralism.