A customer experiences Huawei's smartphones in Shanghai in May. (Photo: VCG)
Following media reports that US technology companies will resume supplies to Huawei in two weeks, analysts are now bullish on the company's smartphone shipments, which they forecast will reach 260 million in 2019, especially if it soon regains access to a Google license.
Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at Hong Kong-based TF International Securities, said in a report released on Monday that if Huawei can successfully regain its Google Mobile Services (GMS) license before the end of July, forecast shipments for 2019 can top 260 million, compared with market estimates of 200 to 220 million. The figure could reach 230 million even without the license. Kuo previously forecast 210 to 220 million units without a license.
GMS - a collection of Google applications - is only available through a license with Google.
Kuo attributed the upward revision of shipments to two factors: telecom services operators resuming sales of Huawei smartphones and Huawei's positive sales strategies.
Separately, a report by Reuters on Monday cited a senior US official who confirmed that the US is to approve licenses in two to four weeks, allowing US companies to resume doing business with Huawei.
Resumed business ties between Huawei and US companies can boost Huawei's development and sales, but the situation could relapse into the previous blanket ban, given the arbitrary nature of the US administration, Xiang Ligang, director-general of the Beijing-based Information Consumption Alliance, told the Global Times on Monday.
"The GMS license will allow Huawei to legally install GMS on its devices, which includes a series of bundled packages of Google apps," Xiang said. "To have the GMS means that Huawei will have a sales advantage especially in overseas markets."
Huawei was added to the "entity list" by the US in May, which cut goods and services supplies from US companies. During the G20 summit at the end of June, US President Donald Trump said that US companies will be allowed to continue supplies to Huawei.
"Although concessions are made now, it is unclear how long they can last since Huawei is still on the entity list," Xiang said.
"Apparently the decision was taken under the influence of US companies that have a huge stake in the business, but the US government is still playing games and it is unclear where it will go in the future."
"But as Huawei has been taking more and more market share in the global smartphone market, US companies will definitely increase their pressure on the government to further soften bans on Huawei," Xiang noted.
Yu Chengdong, head of Huawei's consumer business, has said that the company is aiming to be the top in the world with 250 million to 260 million shipments in 2019, according to media reports.