The US‑Israel‑Iran conflict entered its 37th day on Sunday, as US President Donald Trump issued another expletive‑filled threat to strike Iran's energy infrastructure if Tehran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, while Tehran vowed to restrict another key waterway, the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait off the Arabian Peninsula, in defiance of US demands, according to the Associated Press.
Meanwhile, the Axios reported Monday that US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, according to four US, Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks.
A Chinese expert said volatility in oil prices, the risk of an energy crisis and growing humanitarian consequences could force both sides to make a decision in the short term, potentially pushing the situation toward a clear turn this week.
On Easter Sunday, President Donald Trump posted a message on Truth Social in which he warned Iran that Tuesday would be "Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran" if the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for global trade, isn't opened.
The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy vowed Sunday night local time that the Strait of Hormuz has undergone irreversible strategic changes and will never revert to its former status, particularly for the US and the Israeli regime, as Iranian forces finalize operational preparations for a new security order in the Persian Gulf, Iranian media Press TV reported.
According to the AP News, Trump has issued such deadlines before but extended them when mediators have claimed progress toward ending the war, which has killed thousands, shaken global markets and spiked fuel prices in just over five weeks.
Oil prices rose on Sunday with US crude topping $114 per barrel, after Trump's threat, CNBC News reported. Rapidan Energy sees a total net loss of 630 million barrels of oil and products by the end of June, when accounting for redirected flows through pipelines, emergency stockpile releases and inventory drawdowns.
Eight key members of the OPEC+ alliance agreed Sunday to an increase in oil production next month while warning that war-related disruptions and attacks on energy infrastructure are escalating price swings in global markets, Yahoo finance reported Monday.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman said they would raise output by a combined 206,000 barrels per day starting in May.
The reported downing of the US warplane has also triggered a war of words between Iran and the US. Earlier, Press TV reported that Iran had shot down a US F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet on Friday, leaving the two pilots missing, and cited US media as describing it as the first time in more than 20 years that Iran had downed a US warplane.
Press TV's report also said that a US A-10 attack aircraft had crashed after being hit by Iranian armed forces. It added that the Iranian military had also managed to shoot down two Black Hawk helicopters and a C-130 transport plane early Sunday morning. In a separate statement, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also said its forces had destroyed several US warplanes that were conducting what it described as a desperate mission to rescue the pilot.
The US side, however, claimed one crew member from the downed F-15 had been rescued from "deep inside the mountains of Iran" and was "seriously wounded," according to another Truth Social post by Trump, who stressed that the other pilot had been rescued earlier "in broad daylight" after US forces spent "seven hours over Iran." He added that he would share more details about the operation at a news conference on Monday, CBS News reported.
"The overall situation has not fundamentally changed, with both sides finding it difficult to back down," Zhu Yongbiao, director of the Center for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University, told the Global Times. "The US has not advanced the conflict as expected or achieved its intended war objectives, and despite the uneven dynamics, the situation remains largely deadlocked."
This has left a window for negotiations, with a diplomatic solution to the dispute still possible, the expert added.
Xinhua News Agency, citing a statement from Russia's Foreign Ministry on Sunday, reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a phone call with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, with both sides urging relevant parties not to undermine opportunities to resolve the crisis through political and diplomatic means.
Following Russia's communication with Iran, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke by phone with Lavrov on Sunday to exchange views on the current situation in the Middle East.
China is willing to continue working with Russia within the framework of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, maintain timely communication on major issues, and make joint efforts to help de-escalate the situation in the Middle East, safeguard regional peace and stability, and uphold common security for the world, Wang said, according to the Xinhua.
Russia stands ready to maintain close communication and coordination with China and continue to make efforts and speak out in support of a ceasefire and the end of the war, Lavrov said.
The phone call between the Russian and Iranian foreign ministers, followed by swift communication between the Chinese and Russian foreign ministers, shows that regional countries and major powers are highly sensitive to the conflict, according to the expert.
It also indicates that there is a broad expectation for mediation and diplomatic solutions, and that China and Russia are coordinating their positions on the issue, Zhu said.