As the world enters another summer in the Northern Hemisphere amid global warming and a possible El Nino event, meteorologists warn that 2026 could become one of the hottest years on record.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in late April that sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly, with El Nino conditions possible between May and July. It noted that models are beginning to align, but the "spring predictability barrier" still makes forecasts difficult.
Sunset over a beach at the Pacific Ocean. (Photo: VCG)
Once formed, El Nino reshapes global rainfall and temperature patterns for months. Wetter conditions are likely in parts of South America, the southern United States and the Horn of Africa, while Australia and Indonesia may face drier conditions.
Scientists have warned that a warming climate could intensify El Nino-related impacts. The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in parts of the Atlantic and Mediterranean in early 2026, raising concerns over prolonged heatwaves in Europe.
Sectoral impacts and cascading risks
Australian grain regions entered April with low soil moisture, increasing crop loss and wildfire risks. In Southeast Africa, heavy rainfall and cyclones displaced hundreds of thousands of people in Mozambique and Madagascar earlier this year.
Ko Barrett, deputy secretary-general of the WMO, said early warnings and anticipatory action are becoming increasingly critical as rising temperatures intensify climate risks.
Against this backdrop, governments and international organizations are shifting from disaster response to early action.
The WMO and the United Nations are promoting the "Early Warnings for All" initiative, aiming for universal access to multi-hazard early warning systems and stronger decision support for agriculture, water and energy systems by 2027.
China's science-driven disaster prevention system
China has also strengthened science-based disaster prevention.
The 2026 National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Day will be observed on May 12 on the theme of improving disaster prevention and emergency response capacity.
A recent conference in east China's Hangzhou highlighted "technology empowering disaster prevention and mitigation," focusing on AI forecasting, satellite remote sensing, digital twin river basins and urban flood simulation systems.
AI models are already used in provincial meteorological systems to improve short-term forecasts of extreme rainfall and typhoon paths. Remote sensing supports near real-time monitoring of floods, droughts and geological hazards, helping issue earlier evacuation alerts.
Digital twin river-basin systems have been used in parts of the Yangtze River basin to assist flood-control scheduling and reservoir coordination under rapidly changing rainfall conditions.
Chinese authorities have also expanded emergency drills for flooding, landslides and infrastructure failures. According to China Media Group, integrated monitoring systems combining meteorological, hydrological and geological data are improving evacuation efficiency and response speed.
From institutional response to individual preparedness
Experts say resilience depends on both governments and individuals. Families are encouraged to prepare basic emergency kits, while heatwave guidance stresses limiting outdoor activity and protecting vulnerable groups.
Communities in disaster-prone regions are strengthening evacuation drills and first-aid training. As extreme weather becomes more frequent, reducing emissions and improving daily preparedness are increasingly seen as part of long-term risk reduction.