PARIS, June 17 (Xinhua) -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that oil reserves in members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) had fallen by a cumulative 163 million barrels since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, reaching their lowest level since December 1990.

This photo taken on March 26, 2026 shows an exterior view of the headquarters of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris, France. (File photo: Xinhua)

According to the IEA's latest Monthly Oil Report, global observed oil stocks have fallen by an average of 3.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) since the start of the Middle East conflict, including a draw of 143 million barrels in May, mainly due to accelerated releases of emergency stocks.

The report said the memorandum of understanding due to be signed by the United States and Iran this week was an important step toward easing regional tensions and could pave the way for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian oil traffic.

The IEA forecast global oil supply to fall by an average of 3.9 mb/d in 2026 to 102.4 mb/d, before rising by 8 mb/d in 2027 to 110.3 mb/d. However, unresolved issues, including mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz and transit arrangements, mean operational and political risks could still weigh on the pace of supply recovery.

The agency said a significant supply overhang could emerge next year. Global oil demand is projected to rise by a relatively modest 2 mb/d to 105.3 mb/d, while supply is expected to increase by about 8 mb/d to 110.3 mb/d.

The surplus could ease market pressures and allow countries to replenish depleted inventories or build strategic reserves as they reassess energy policies in response to the crisis, the IEA said.