Southeast Asia growth resilient as AI boom offsets risks: Moody's

SINGAPORE, Sept. 11 (Xinhua) -- Southeast Asia's economy has proved more resilient than expected this year, supported by an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven boom in exports and investment, although mounting external risks could weigh on the outlook, Moody's Analytics said on Thursday.

Seniors attend a digital skills workshop on generative AI in a neighborhood in Singapore, on June 25, 2026. (Photo: Xinhua)

The AI boom is lifting the region unevenly, favoring economies that are more closely integrated into the global technology supply chain, the agency said in a note.

"Higher energy prices, evolving U.S. tariffs and soft domestic demand threatened to widen growth disparities, yet an AI-driven boom in exports and investment has kept the region on a firmer footing than headlines suggest," it said.

For ASEAN, Moody's September baseline projects growth to ease slightly to 4.8 percent this year and 4.6 percent in 2027, from 4.9 percent in 2025.

While the front-loading of orders seen last year has normalized, the AI boom continues to support growth, particularly through data center investment and electronics exports.

Moody's said most Southeast Asian economies are performing better than expected when comparing its January and September forecasts, with the AI boom accounting for much of the upward revisions.

However, the outlook faces increasing risks from elevated U.S. tariffs. Moody's expects effective U.S. tariff rates to remain high through 2028, with risks tilted towards further escalation.

"The carve-out for semiconductor chips is shielding major Southeast Asian tech exporters such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam from higher effective tariff rates, although this could soon land on the chopping block," it said.