WTO raises 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9 pct

World Trade Organization (WTO) Chief Economist Robert Staiger (L) speaks during a press conference at the WTO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, Oct. 8, 2026. WTO said on Thursday that global merchandise trade is expected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2026, up from its March forecast of 1.9 percent, driven by supply chain adaptation and strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI). (Photo: Xinhua/Lian Yi)

GENEVA, Oct. 8 (Xinhua) -- The World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Thursday that global merchandise trade is expected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2026, up from its March forecast of 1.9 percent, driven by supply chain adaptation and strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI).

While raising the forecast for merchandise trade growth, the WTO's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report lowered the outlook for services trade in 2026 over the impact of the Middle East conflict.

The report also projected global GDP growth at 2.6 percent and 2.9 percent in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

This photo taken on Oct. 8, 2026 shows a press conference at the headquarters of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva, Switzerland. WTO said on Thursday that global merchandise trade is expected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2026, up from its March forecast of 1.9 percent, driven by supply chain adaptation and strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI). (Photo: Xinhua/Lian Yi)

A copy of the World Trade Organization (WTO)'s latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report is pictured during a press conference at the WTO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, Oct. 8, 2026. WTO said on Thursday that global merchandise trade is expected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2026, up from its March forecast of 1.9 percent, driven by supply chain adaptation and strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI). (Photo: Xinhua/Lian Yi)