Explainer: Can Abu Dhabi talks break the Russia-Ukraine deadlock?

MOSCOW, Nov. 9 (Xinhua) -- As delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States prepare to convene Tuesday in Abu Dhabi for another round of talks on the Ukraine conflict, the spotlight has once again fallen on a familiar question: Can this round achieve what previous attempts did not?

The lead-up to upcoming two-day talks has been characterized by direct U.S.-Russia interactions. U.S. President Donald Trump met with Russia's special presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Washington on Nov. 5 and predicted a "big, beautiful agreement" that "might involve all of Europe."

Trump's optimistic words stand in stark contrast to the signals coming from Moscow. In late October, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated Russia's position against a ceasefire that would give the Ukrainians "a respite," adding that Moscow does not plan to halt combat operations ahead of the trilateral talks.

The Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi will again be led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, a choice that analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based think tank, view as a clear indication that the Kremlin is not prepared for good-faith negotiations yet.

The ISW notes that Medinsky used his position during the previous talks in Geneva in February 2026 to stall the process by discussing the abstract "historical roots" of the war.

Zhang Hong of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said that there is a clear misalignment of objectives of Russia, Ukraine and the United States, noting that the conditions for a high-level meeting among leaders of the three countries are not yet in place.

At the Ministerial Meeting of the Council of the Baltic Sea States in Warsaw on Nov. 6, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said the Abu Dhabi negotiations will focus on a range of issues including security guarantees, de-escalation in the Black Sea and the energy sector, prisoner exchanges, and preparing the agenda for the leaders' meeting.

Ukrainian experts are also cautious in their expectations. Andriy Veselovsky, former Ukrainian Ambassador to the European Union (EU) and adviser to the National Institute for Strategic Studies, told Ukrinform news agency that the trilateral talks are unlikely to bring immediate results. He noted that, for Ukraine, this would be a chance to convince wide circles around President Trump of the need to support Ukraine.

Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, expressed restrained optimism, saying that the round of negotiations would not be the last, according to CBS News.

A rare point of cooperation has emerged in the humanitarian sphere.

In the town of Oleshky, a six-day ceasefire, brokered with the involvement of U.S. first lady Melania Trump, facilitated the evacuation of nearly 800 civilians from the conflict zone and the delivery of humanitarian aid.

Notably, Trump acknowledged he did not meet with Ukrainian officials attending a White House event marking the success of the Oleshky ceasefire, raising questions about whether a broader European security arrangement would be discussed without direct Ukrainian participation.

Meanwhile, Europe's role in the Abu Dhabi talks remains uncertain.

In a letter circulated Nov. 5, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told European Council President Antonio Costa that Europe risks "irrelevance" in negotiations unless EU leaders agree on a single representative with a clear mandate.

Costa agreed to discuss the issue at an informal EU leaders' meeting in Dublin on Nov. 13, stressing that EU interests must be represented by its institutions.

Likewise, on Nov. 6, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that any peace agreement, in order to be implemented, will require the EU to be a part of it.

However, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Saturday that the Europeans have no place at the negotiating table on Ukraine.

She said that the start of the "Coalition of the Willing" military exercises in Poland on Nov. 9, on the eve of the Abu Dhabi talks, shows that the West still refuses to take into account Russia's security concerns.

"It is abundantly clear that the West remains unwilling to take Russia's legitimate security concerns into account and continues to fuel the spiral of escalation," she said.